Empty shelves at Costco are making headlines again. Social media is full of photos showing bare aisles where 30-packs of toilet paper used to sit. And if you’ve seen those posts, you might be wondering whether it’s time to panic-buy a year’s supply.
It’s probably not. But the situation is worth understanding clearly, because the causes are real even if the scale is being exaggerated. Here’s what’s actually driving the problem, what Costco’s purchase limits mean, and how to respond without making things worse.
The Difference Between a Real Shortage and an Empty Shelf
These two things look the same from where you’re standing in the aisle, but they’re very different problems.
A true shortage means manufacturers cannot produce enough product to meet demand. An empty shelf means local inventory sold out faster than it could be restocked. The causes are different. The solutions are different. And how worried you should be is very different.
Almost every Costco toilet paper situation falls into the second category. According to Business Focus Mag, there is no genuine shortage of toilet paper from manufacturing plants to big-box stores. The problem is consumer behavior and distribution — not factory output. One empty warehouse in Minnesota tells you nothing about what’s happening in Texas or at the production level.
Why This Keeps Happening — From COVID to Port Strikes
This is not a new pattern. The 2020 COVID panic built the template. A perceived threat triggered bulk buying. Bulk buying wiped out local inventory. Empty shelves triggered more buying. It was a feedback loop that had almost nothing to do with how much toilet paper was actually being made.
Costco reinstated item limits again during the Delta variant phase in late 2021. CBS Evening News reported that Costco cited container ship shortages, factory worker gaps, and truck driver shortages as the reasons. The limits came back not because toilet paper was disappearing from the world, but because demand surged and logistics couldn’t keep up with the spike.
The most recent trigger is a dockworkers’ strike that shut down 36 East and Gulf Coast ports. That’s a significant logistics event. Media coverage about potential goods shortages reached a wide audience, and shoppers responded by rushing to Costco — particularly in states like Minnesota, Iowa, and South Dakota, according to reporting from 973KKRC. They created the very shortage they were afraid of.
Fox29 reported that maritime analysts estimate each day of a port strike requires four to six days to clear the resulting backlog. That’s a legitimate concern for imported goods. But toilet paper is not meaningfully an imported product, which is the part most people missed.
Most U.S. Toilet Paper Never Goes Near a Port
This is probably the most important fact in the whole conversation: more than 90% of U.S. toilet paper is produced domestically. CNN confirmed this figure, cited by 973KKRC in their coverage of the regional buying frenzy. Most of the remaining supply comes from Canada and Mexico by truck or rail.
That means a dockworkers’ strike on the East and Gulf Coasts does not cut off the toilet paper supply in any direct way. The product isn’t sitting on container ships. It’s being made in domestic factories and shipped by truck to distribution centers around the country.
There is an indirect effect worth acknowledging. Broader logistics strain — more pressure on trucking, warehouses stretched thin across multiple product categories — can slow replenishment at specific stores. That’s a timing issue, not a supply volume issue. The toilet paper exists. Getting it to a particular Costco shelf might take a few extra days.
Price pressure is a separate concern. General inflation and rising logistics costs can affect what consumers pay at the register. But higher prices don’t mean the product vanishes. People buying in bulk to “beat inflation” — a sentiment visible in YouTube commentary and social media — are responding to cost anxiety, not an actual supply threat.
What Costco’s Purchase Limits Actually Mean
When Costco posts a sign saying customers are limited to one or two packages of toilet paper, many shoppers read it as a warning: they’re running out and rationing what’s left. That reading is understandable but mostly wrong.
Purchase limits are a demand management tool. The goal is to prevent a small number of buyers from clearing out entire pallets, leaving nothing for the next hundred customers. It’s a fairness mechanism, not a distress signal.
Toilet paper is bulky and low-margin. Costco warehouses don’t carry massive backstock of it the way they might with smaller, higher-value items. When demand suddenly jumps — even by 20 or 30 percent above normal — local inventory clears fast. That can happen even when the broader supply chain is working fine. The product just wasn’t there in large enough quantities to absorb a panic-buying wave.
Limits can coexist with perfectly adequate underlying supply. Costco has used them on toilet paper, paper towels, bottled water, and cleaning supplies at multiple points since 2020. Each time, the limits helped stabilize local inventory and reduce the feedback loop. They worked as intended.
A viral Instagram Reel or TikTok showing an empty Costco aisle doesn’t tell you the limits aren’t working — it often shows you the problem the limits are trying to solve.
Regional Reality: Two Costcos, Two Different Situations
One thing worth noting from Reddit discussions is the gap between experiences. Some shoppers report empty shelves and purchase limits at their location. Others, including users reporting from Texas, say their local Costco has plenty of paper goods with no restrictions in sight.
This regional variation matters. It means you should not assume that a viral photo from one state reflects what’s happening in your area or nationally. Local inventory depends on the specific distribution center serving that warehouse, recent delivery schedules, and how many panic-buyers hit that particular location before you did.
A useful way to think about it: imagine a traffic jam causing a few gas stations in one neighborhood to temporarily run low, even though refineries are operating normally. The problem is traffic and local demand, not a fuel supply crisis. That’s close to what’s happening with Costco toilet paper right now.
How to Respond Without Making It Worse
The practical guidance here is simple, even if it’s not what anxiety-driven headlines suggest.
- Don’t stockpile beyond what you’d normally use in a month or two. If everyone buys a reasonable amount, shelves stay stocked. If everyone buys six months’ worth, the shelves empty for everyone else — and you’ve contributed to the problem.
- Check multiple stores or formats. If your Costco is out, a grocery store, warehouse alternative, or online order may have stock available. The shortage is localized, not universal.
- Be flexible on brand. If Kirkland is gone, store-brand or other domestic brands are likely still on shelves somewhere. Domestic production is stable across manufacturers, not just one label.
- Read headlines carefully. When you see “toilet paper shortage” in a headline, ask: Is this a manufacturing problem or a distribution problem? Which regions? Does it involve domestic production or imported goods? The specifics matter a lot.
For business owners and managers who stock supplies for offices or facilities, the same logic applies. There’s no need to emergency-order six months of supplies. Order your normal cycle plus a modest buffer if it gives you peace of mind, and revisit in a few weeks when distribution normalizes.
If you manage a supply chain or procurement function, tools and resources from BusinessSling can help you think through demand planning and vendor management in more structured ways — especially when panic in the broader market affects your own purchasing decisions.
The Bottom Line
There is no evidence of a national toilet paper manufacturing crisis. Factories are producing. Domestic supply is strong. The problem is consumer behavior creating localized, temporary out-of-stock situations — which then trigger more consumer behavior.
Costco’s purchase limits are designed to break that cycle, not confirm your worst fears about it. Port strikes are a real logistics event, but they don’t cut off a product that’s made almost entirely in the United States.
Buy what you need. Understand what’s driving the news. And leave a few packages on the shelf for the next person.
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